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Game of Thrones Season 8 Spoilers – Death Predictions Using Algorithms

We are now in the season finale(8th season) of Game of Thrones currently showcased on HBO. The Game of Thrones series is all about the brutal and unexpected deaths of your favorite and non-favorite characters. A Song of Ice and Data brings you Game of Thrones Season 8 Spoilers – Death Predictions Using Algorithms.

A group of students and huge machine learning nerds at TU Munich’s chair of Bioinformatics (TUM) and GoT fans in Germany have created an algorithm that predicts which characters will die next.

Game of Thrones Season 8 Spoilers
Game of Thrones: Season 8 – Pic Credits [HBO]

Data crunching skills with Machine Learning helps to accurately calculate the Likelihood of Death for each character. This project is called “A Song of Ice and Data”. The initial version was developed by the seminar in 2016 and the current version by the seminar in 2019. Most of the data is periodically scraped from A Wiki of Ice and Fire and Fandom Game of Thrones Wiki. Which eventually portrays your favorite Game of Thrones character’s life expectancy at the great houses of Westeros.  

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How does the algorithm work??

Some data comes from Wiki-sources using machine learning approaches to make predictions. The team also used a sentiment analysis of tweets to deduce how fans feel about the Game of Thrones characters. The team also plotted the characters’ footsteps on the Game of Thrones map using data mining, which eventually calculates Likelihood of Death for each character.

The gathering of this data revealed some truths about the mortality and universe of the series. The fact that being a man is more dangerous than being a woman: male characters have a mortality rate of 22%, compared to 11% for females. In addition, the family to which the character belongs is also able to increase or decrease their life expectancy. While the Baratheon, for example, has a 5% above average mortality, Lannister’s present a 45% chance of survival.

Game of Thrones Season 8 Spoilers alert!

Based on these methods, the researchers came to the conclusion that the most likely character to survive is Daenerys Targaryen, who is only 0.9% likely to die. Next came Tyrion Lannister (2.5%), Varys (3.2%), Samwell Tarly (3.3%) and Jaime Lannister(4.0%).

At the other end of the rankings are Bronn and Gregor Clegane, with 93.5% and 80.3% chance of dying. To complete the list of probable victims of the eighth season, we have Sansa Stark (73.3%), Bran Stark (57.8%) and Sandor Clegane (47.5%). Those curious who want to access the complete ranking can find it on the project website (got.show).

The statistics also show Jon Snow is the most popular character. Daenerys Targaryen is the main character most likely to survive. On the other hand, Bronn is the main character who is most likely to die

However, the Game of Thrones Season 8 has just begun, and you cannot make the death predictions just based on algorithms. Throughout its seasons, the series based on the work of George RR Martin proved that unpredictability is part of the script.

[Source1] [Source2]

Photo Credit [HBO]

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